Betting on the hive mind: prediction markets

The best mechanism we have for turning scattered private knowledge into a number you can trust is a market. That’s the idea behind the prediction-market work coming out of Hive Mind Swarm.

When people put money behind their beliefs, the price becomes a live, honest probability — the crowd, weighted by conviction. A literal hive mind.

What I’m building and learning in that space, and why I think markets beat experts more often than we admit. // end transmission